According to a new report, Canadians will be ringing in the new year with higher food prices.
The annual Canada’s Food Price Report (CFRP) was released on Thursday. It revealed how much more your grocery bill could be in 2025.
It predicts that overall food prices will increase by 3% to 5%, with the average family of four expected to spend $16,833.67 next year—an increase of up to $801.56 from last year.
According to the report, the current food inflation rate is 2.8% as prices increased slower than predicted in 2024.
“Our relationship with food is changing as we pay more attention to food prices than ever before, shifting our behaviours around purchasing and consumption,” reads the CFRP.
Canadians are pinching pennies, with some even skipping meals to afford groceries.
The most significant price increases are from 4% to 6% in categories such as bakery, dairy, meat, restaurants, and vegetables.
Canada’s Food Price Report 2025
The CFRP highlighted that prices are influenced by various global factors. These include issues like climate change, geopolitical conflicts, input and energy costs, inflation, currencies and trade, food distribution, food processing, policies and regulations, consumer awareness, and consumer debt.
“Some impacts of adverse weather are starting to be reflected in food prices, such as more expensive meat, due to lengthy droughts in Canada’s beef-producing regions,” said Stuart Smyth, campus lead at the University of Saskatchewan. “This has resulted in fewer cattle presently producing meat.”
Donald Trump’s re-election in the US could also have a significant impact.
Over the weekend, the president-elect threatened a 25% tariff on Canadian products.
According to CFRP, 60% of our agri-food exports are currently directed to the US, which means Trump could “widen the gap, given his commitment to reducing American farming costs and rolling back environmental regulations.”
“To safeguard our food security, Canada will need to work closely with North American partners,” said Sylvain Charlebois, project lead at Dalhousie University (Faculties of Management and Agriculture).
The report also broke down whether provinces will experience above-average, below-average, or average price increases.
Numbers were determined using AI to furnish historical Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for each good, including meat, dairy, fish, fruit, bakery, restaurant, and others. The average of these was then used to determine whether the increase was above, below, or average.
As the table below shows, prices are forecast to increase above average in New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Quebec.
Canada’s Food Price Report 2025
The CFRP also discussed the May-long boycott against Loblaw, in which Canadians expressed their frustrations with major grocers and soaring grocery costs.
“This underscored the persistent collective frustration and distrust of large grocers among Canadian consumers,” reads the report.
Last year’s findings forecasted that food prices would increase by 2.5% to 4.5% overall in 2024.
The report was conducted by research partners Dalhousie University, the University of Guelph, the University of Saskatchewan, and the University of British Columbia.