After losing a Toronto-area riding that’s been solidly Liberal for decades, questions — and doubts — hang over the political prospects of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada.
Officials from Trudeau’s team called caucus members Tuesday to get feedback on the party’s direction after the surprise loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s, sources told Radio-Canada.
But with Trudeau again indicating he plans to stay on — and with poll after poll suggesting Canadians are tired of him and his party — is there anything the Liberals can do at this point to get back in voters’ good graces?
“I don’t think there’s anything he can do,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto, who has watched the Liberals’ polling numbers trend downwards for the past year.
He did suggest that external factors — such as November’s U.S. presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump — could cause voters to give the Liberals a second look.
“There’s external events that could force voters to evaluate him differently,” he said. “I think the pandemic, for example, did that with a lot of political leaders. It was a crisis that forced us to look at our leaders in different ways.
“I don’t think [the Liberals] want Trump to win. But politically, it might be the only kind of thing that does it. But even then, I’m not convinced.”
Dan Arnold, chief strategy officer at the polling firm Pollara, said other external events — like a summer of wildfires — could bring the issue of climate change back to the fore, which could work to the Liberals’ advantage. He also said such external events are unpredictable.
Arnold, who once worked as the Liberals’ director of research and advertising, suggested the party look instead to history and try to change the conversation.
“What the Liberals can do, I think, would be to come forward with some new policy ideas, come forward with something that maybe gets some actual debate with [Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre],” he said.
“This is sort of what saved Brian Mulroney in 1988. There was a big free trade election that distracted people from a lot of the other frustrations they had with his government.”
Rolling out that message in an advertising campaign would be effective, said Arnold — if the Liberals had the money to pay for it.
“They don’t seem too based on the financial returns,” he said.
“But if you had $10 million to put into advertising and you were able to target it directly to the audiences you were trying to reach, and you had a compelling message, that’s something that could shift public opinion.”
Changing negative perceptions ‘very hard’: pollster
Coletto said the results in Toronto-St. Paul’s, and a year of low Liberal polling numbers, indicate people are unhappy with the direction of the country and want change.
“I think voters have decided how they feel about the prime minister. And once people have a negative view of you, of anything, it’s very hard to change their minds, especially if the person they don’t really like is the one trying to convince them otherwise,” he said.
Arnold said he doesn’t believe a cabinet shuffle, or a shakeup to the prime minister’s inner circle, would change those perceptions.
“Who the heritage minister is is probably not going to have a huge impact on Canadians,” he said.
And “if 40 per cent of Canadians can’t name a cabinet minister, the number of Canadians who can name a [staffer] from the Prime Minister’s Office is a lot, lot less than that.”
Trudeau has insisted he plans to stay on as leader.
“I and my entire team have much more hard work to do to deliver tangible, real progress that Canadians can see and feel,” he said Tuesday.
Coletto said it’s not clear the Liberals’ fortunes would shift if Trudeau changed his mind and resigned.
“I think they’re in a deep hole,” he said.
“Canadians have a very clear view of the prime minister. That’s not likely going to change and there’s nothing Justin Trudeau is going to be able to do about that. But I don’t know how people are going to react to a hypothetical leader that frankly, any of the names that we test, they don’t know very much about in the first place.”
The party’s roadmap after losing a historically safe Liberal seat in Toronto to Conservative candidate Don Stewart by 590 votes is unclear.
Sources — who spoke to Radio-Canada on the condition of anonymity because they aren’t authorized to speak publicly — said the Prime Minister’s Office has been calling caucus members to gauge their morale after the defeat. Trudeau himself did not make those calls, said the sources.
Publicly, Liberal MPs have been talking about the need for some soul-searching.
“I think a lot of us have to take a step back, give our heads a shake, screw it on a little better,” said Immigration Minister Marc Miller Wednesday.
“Stop the navel-gazing and get back on the horse and fight for Canadians.”
Immigration Minister Marc Miller says after the Liberals’ loss in the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection, ‘a lot of us have to take a step back and give our heads a shake.’ Miller said he thinks Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is best-placed to take on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in the next election, calling Poilievre a ‘fake,’ and comparing him to a ‘wrestling manager from the 1980s yelling slogans.’
His cabinet colleague Karina Gould, who also serves as the party’s Ontario campaign co-chair, called Tuesday’s result “a wake-up call.”
“We have to do some internal reflection,” she told CBC’s Power & Politics.
Longtime Liberal MP Judy Sgro, who has been in caucus in both government and opposition, said “we have to define our message.”
“A year is a lifetime in political office. Things can change dramatically,” she said.
Trudeau should ‘absolutely’ stay: Miller
But already, whispers are coming from some corners of caucus calling for a change at the top.
A handful of Liberals — who also spoke to CBC on the condition they not be named because they are not cleared to talk publicly about internal party politics — suggested that Trudeau needs to resign.
“Does he have to go? I think it’s difficult to see other options,” said one of those MPs.
On Wednesday, Miller said Trudeau should “absolutely” stay on to take on Poilievre in the next election. The minister compared the opposition leader to a 1980s wrestling manager who yells slogans.
“But it’s not a WWF match, this is reality. Canadians are suffering and we need to fight for them,” Miller said.
A Conservative byelection win in a Toronto stronghold is being seen by many as a message to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals that it’s time for major change in the party and who leads it.
While celebrating his party’s “shocking upset” on social media, Poilievre urged Trudeau to call an election.
“Here is the verdict: Trudeau can’t go on like this,” he posted on X Tuesday. “He must call a carbon tax election now.”
The next election is scheduled for the fall of next year. For now, Trudeau’s minority government is supported by the NDP through a confidence-and-supply agreement.
The deal sees the New Democrats back the Liberals in confidence votes in exchange for action on NDP priorities like dental care. The deal does allow the NDP to pull the plug and trigger an earlier election if the party feels the Liberals have failed to live up to the agreement.
Arnold pointed to the Ontario premier as an example of someone who was able to change people’s opinions ahead of an election.
“You know, Doug Ford was very unpopular his first year. He certainly was able to recover and rebrand himself a bit,” he said.
“But ultimately, any government going for its fourth mandate probably only gets that mandate if people are not comfortable with the alternative.”
Coletto said there’s an outside chance voters will sour on Poilievre closer to election day.
“There is always a chance that something happens that makes somebody so unacceptable that that people embrace the devil they know for the devil they’ve gotten to know,” he said.
“Is that likely? No. Is it probable? Probably not.”