Transitioning out of the summer season may not feel so stark this year, with fall temperatures predicted to trend above the range of normal.
That’s according to Environment and Climate Change Canada, which says there’s a 50 to 60 per cent chance that the fall season, from September to November, will be warmer than average.
That percentage is even higher for eastern parts of the country, says Alysa Pederson, a meteorologist with the agency.
Pederson stressed that when looking at seasonal forecasts, the agency can capture general anomalies but not each individual weather event.
“So when we say above normal for a season, it doesn’t mean we’re not going to have the cold and it doesn’t mean we’re going to be above normal, like warm and hot throughout every week.”
So far, Pederson said, September is off to a cooler start, having had several days of heavy rain already, with more in the forecast. She said October and November will likely be the months that bring the season above the average, temperature-wise.
But don’t hesitate too much on bringing out your warm-weather gear — Pederson said she does expect some parts of Alberta to see snow before the end of the month.
While Pederson said it’s too soon to tell what winter will bring, some Albertans have already turned to a different source for predictions.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, an annual publication with long-term weather forecasts, gardening tips and astronomical data, is expecting a long white winter, with above average snowfall.
The almanac arrives at its projections based on the same formula it’s used since 1792, with a few tweaks, says editor-in-chief Carol Connare.
That involves combining climatology, meteorology and solar science.
“[Calgary] is actually one of the few places in North America where we’re calling for really consistent snow cover,” said Carol Connare, editor-in-chief of the almanac.
“So I don’t know if that’s good news or bad, but certainly skiers will like it.”