Albertans can expect a further COVID-19 bump, driven by yet another crop of new variants, experts are cautioning.
COVID cases, hospitalizations and positivity rates have been rising since April.
“Unlike other respiratory illnesses, we’re not really getting a summer reprieve,” said Sarah (Sally) Otto, a COVID-19 modeller and professor in the department of zoology at the University of British Columbia.
“We’re seeing this across Canada and globally, that there’s an uptick in cases. And that’s coming from these new variants [and the] evolution of this virus.”
The KP.2 and KP.3 variants, combined, now account for more than half of Alberta’s sequenced cases.
“They have changes, again, that help them evade our immune systems and get in, again, just a little bit easier.”
While Otto expects a further uptick, she’s not predicting a dramatic wave over the summer.
“We don’t expect a huge rise, just maybe another doubling of cases, which is terrible, we don’t want any more cases … but I don’t expect emergency levels.”
According to Alberta’s latest COVID-19 statistics, 178 people are in hospital with COVID as a primary or contributing factor. Eight Albertans are in intensive care.
Hospitalizations have been climbing since April, when they dropped below 100.
The positivity rate has also been increasing and it is now sitting at 11.9 per cent.
“I think that there has been a true increase in transmission [and] there has been a true increase in more severe disease,” said Dr. Lynora Saxinger, an infectious diseases specialist at the University of Alberta.
“It has been rumbling up over that period. It has been a fairly slow increase.”
According to Saxinger, a lot of the people being hospitalized due to COVID-19 are seniors and those who are unvaccinated or under-vaccinated.
“I think in some people, and across the community in general, immunity is wearing thinner,” she said.
“People that are immuno-compromised or still have multiple risks — especially age as a risk or time-since-last vaccination as a risk — could still look at getting the currently available vaccine, which would provide additional protection for a period of time.”
With an updated vaccine likely coming this fall, she said it’s important for people to make the decision soon so they’re eligible for what she expects will be a November rollout.
“People over 65 should look at their vaccine history and I would get one right away.”
She’s also urging people to test if they have symptoms, rather than assume it’s just a summer cold.
According to provincial data, 16.8 per cent of Albertans have received a COVID-19 vaccine since last August.
“People are more willing to get the flu vaccine even though the COVID risks to them of being hospitalized or dying are so much higher,” said Otto.
Another 13 deaths were reported last week, for a total of 605 since the end of August 2023.
“There continue to be a lot of deaths from COVID,” said Otto.
“This isn’t a disease that’s so mild you can ignore it. It really is harming our community.”