Nichole Neubauer is relieved to see all the greenery popping up on her farm in southeast Alberta.
Just outside Medicine Hat, in the heart of a region that struggled through extreme drought conditions last year, farmers and ranchers like Neubauer have been nervous about the possibility of another difficult season.
But spring delivered much more moisture than expected, with Medicine Hat seeing its third-wettest May on record.
For Neubauer, the timing was perfect. She finished seeding her dryland acres just before significant rains arrived, helping out the cereal crops she’s growing this year, and replenishing the stressed pastures where she grazes cattle.
“It all soaked in, went right into the growing zone, and the results were astronomical,” Neubauer said.
“Certainly, we’re not out of the woods yet with the droughts. Rain will always, always be welcome in this region. There’s just a whole lot more optimism this time this year than in previous years.”
Since the summer of 2023, much of southeast and east-central Alberta has consistently been under a dark crimson patch on the colour-coded drought monitoring map.
That indicates the worst drought conditions in the Canadian Drought Monitor’s rating system, with an area of “exceptional” drought — the very worst classification out of five possible categories — ringed by larger portions of “extreme” and “severe” drought.
But over the last month, the blazing red illustrating the worst of the drought in southern Alberta has been erased, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
“This is probably one of the best-case scenarios that we could have hoped for,” said agroclimate specialist Trevor Hadwen.
As of May 31, drought conditions have been upgraded by two or even three classifications through most of Alberta’s main agricultural regions. It’s very rare to see that kind of change over just one month, Hadwen said.
But that doesn’t mean drought is no longer a problem. Much of central and southern Alberta remains in moderate to severe drought, but that’s a notable improvement from the kind of dry conditions that persisted over the winter.
Still, Hadwen said, water supplies for southern irrigation districts remain a concern this summer. And long-term soil moisture deficits from multiple years of compounding drought can’t be solved in one rainy month.
“We’re not expecting those to be made up overnight. So we’ve made really good progress in terms of those long-term deficits, but we’re still in a vulnerable situation.”
Drought troubles worsen in Peace River region
Despite the turnaround for most of the south, northern Alberta hasn’t seen the same kind of relief.
The northwest Peace River region missed any meaningful precipitation last month, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. The province’s worst drought conditions are now concentrated there, with growing areas of extreme and exceptional drought.
Gary These, a rancher who runs a cow-calf operation just north of the town of Peace River, said it’s obvious on his pasture.
“We should be looking at mid-calf grasses, and most of it is probably ankle-high,” he told CBC News.
These already sold most of the yearlings in his herd of about 200 cattle, knowing he’d be in a tough spot to grow enough feed.
“We’ve caught a couple of showers so that it isn’t bone-dry like it was,” he said. “But we’ll be lucky to keep everything together here.”
A winter with virtually no snow in the region means there was nothing to melt into run-off in the spring, and These said river levels are noticeably low.
“If there’s no water coming down the river to fill the reservoirs, it’s going to be tough for everybody, not just the farmers.”
Even in the south, precipitation has been sporadic in some areas. Stephen Vandervalk, the Alberta vice president for the Canadian Wheat Growers Association, said plenty of producers are still anxious.
His farm near Fort Macleod hasn’t gotten the kind of long, sustained rainfall that he’d consider a good “drought buster,” and without more moisture by the end of June, he’ll be even more worried.
“I don’t want to be that broken record, stereotypical farmer whining about rain. But I mean, the numbers don’t lie — seven years out of eight getting crop insurance because we’re not growing enough crop to break even,” he said.
With limited water allocations across southern Alberta irrigation districts this summer, Vandervalk said there’s still a long way to go, as farmers wait to see results from seeding.
“We’re definitely nowhere near out of the woods yet.”