Alberta is determined to raise both its profile and its influence with the incoming Donald Trump administration, according to the province’s senior representative in Washington, James Rajotte.
And an expert in Canada-U.S. relations says the province is well-placed to do just that.
Rajotte joined host Kathleen Petty on this week’s edition of the CBC podcast West of Centre.
West of Centre45:01Alberta’s Trump strategy
What does a Trump presidency mean for Alberta? With talk of a 10 percent tariff on U.S. imports ,including Alberta energy and agriculture, many are wondering just how special our relationship is with our neighbours to the south. West of Centre host Kathleen Petty speaks with James Rajotte , Alberta’s Senior Representative in Washington.
He said the province’s priority right now is building on the relationships that have already been established with likely members of the new administration and forcefully expressing Alberta’s position on its primary area of concern: tariffs.
“The number 1 thing that Canadian and Alberta officials are concerned about is, will there be tariffs coming?” Rajotte said.
The Alberta oil and gas sector accounted for $133 billion worth of trade last year with the U.S. That represented 82 per cent of the province’s total exports to (by far) its largest trading partner.
Rajotte says he and other Alberta officials will be making the case that imposing the 10 per cent tariffs promised by Trump during his recent election campaign on Alberta energy products would have a massive, negative effect on the cost of living south of the border.
“Our argument is that putting tariffs on that just makes it more expensive for Americans, which obviously the incoming administration does not want to see,” he said.
Take Trump seriously, not literally
Christopher Sands is the director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute in Washington, D.C. When asked how much influence a sub-national government like Alberta’s can have with Washington policy-makers in negotiations over tariffs on oil and gas, he told CBC News that the question is not so much about influence, it’s more about how much the new administration will try to avoid policies that will push up gas prices for Americans.
He pointed to a statement made by a reporter a few years ago about Trump — that the people who support him take him seriously, but not literally.
“I think the 10 per cent tariff has a bit of the same flair. It certainly communicated to a lot of people in the election that he wasn’t about to let foreign countries take advantage of us … but I’m not sure how imminent it is,” Sands said.
“I think what James and his crew need to do — and it’s always tricky — is to have the access to people, whether it’s on the Hill or elsewhere, to walk through the idea that a 10 per cent tariff has implications for voters.”
That is a position that Rajotte has already begun staking out.
“Our role here is to really make the point that one of the main concerns during the election was affordability, especially energy affordability… And so the lower energy costs that they need, Alberta and Canada are really the answer for that,” he said.
Rajotte says he’s also been focusing his message on energy security, arguing that increasing oil and gas imports from Alberta displaces imports from places like Russia, Iran and Venezuela.
“That is hugely important to policy-makers here in the U.S.,” he said.
“Every meeting I’ve had, every Republican stakeholder brings up energy security … and is appreciative of those ties.”
While Rajotte says he doesn’t think a second Trump administration will mean a reconsideration of the Keystone XL pipeline, which was cancelled by President Joe Biden on his first day in office in 2021, he does believe there will be very serious conversations about more energy infrastructure between Canada and the U.S. Currently, 70 pipelines cross the Canada-U.S. border, he said.
“The premier and the cabinet are very interested in moving more product — whether it’s oil or natural gas — to the United States and to other markets around the world, and obviously more energy infrastructure would certainly be part of that,” Rajotte said.
He says one of his goals in the tariff discussions with the new administration is to have Alberta oil and gas treated as a domestic, rather than foreign product.
Christopher Sands says that is an achievable goal, given the interconnectedness between the two countries when it comes to oil and gas infrastructure, and the increased demand for energy in the U.S.
“There’s a logic to that. You could defend that,” Sands said.
Pointing to what he calls Alberta’s “pro-American attitude,” Sands says the province is uniquely positioned as a part of Canada that thinks a little differently than the federal government.
“You might be mad at Canada, or you might be annoyed by Trudeau, but we’re here. We are on your side,” he said.
And that might make it easier, he says, for the province to find a receptive audience in Washington.
“The Trump campaign did very well in communities where, not only is inflation biting, but also where people are … traditional … plain-spoken folks. And Alberta speaks that language. And it will carry some resonance in Washington,” Sands said.
Rajotte, who served as an Edmonton MP from 2000 to 2015 and was appointed to his present job in May 2020, calls this an exciting time.
“I think it’s going to be exciting for Alberta’s opportunities with the new administration, the new congress. We’ve built great relationships in both parties, so we’re well-suited to take advantage of that,” he said.
“I think Alberta is really going to be at the centre of so many conversations here in the United States.”