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Prices for resale homes are forecast to climb higher in what could be one of the strongest fall markets in recent years, a new report predicts.
National realty firm Zoocasa recently published its fall forecast, pointing to declining interest rates spurring strong demand this fall in most Canadian cities with some notable exceptions.
Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto are expected to see average price declines, breaking a trend whereby even amid rising interest rates, average prices continued to rise in those cities year over year between 2020 and 2023 in the fall.
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Calgary is among those forecast to see price growth this fall, it added, continuing its four-year streak of higher average prices in the fall. One reason for strong demand, the report noted, is the decline in borrowing costs with the Bank of Canada having reduced its policy rate 75 basis points since June with potentially two more cuts this year, and even more in 2025.
Calgary remains a seller’s market, the report adds, with a sales-to-new-listing ratio of about 64 per cent. Any ratio exceeding 60 per cent is considered a market that favours sellers. In contrast, Toronto’s market is forecast to favour buyers with a ratio slightly below 40 per cent. The threshold for a buyer’s market is 40 per cent, while a balanced market typically has a ratio between 40 and 60 per cent, the report noted.
Of the 26 markets surveyed, only the Niagara Region in Ontario is forecast to be a buyer’s market along with Toronto. Eight markets are deemed to be in balance, including Greater Vancouver.
The report predicted that 16 remaining markets will favour seller’s this fall. Saguenay, Que., is forecast to favour sellers the most with a ratio of more than 89 per cent.
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