The economic outlook for Calgary and for Alberta in the next year is positive, but the upcoming U.S. election and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could weigh heavy on the good news, according to Calgary Economic Development.
“The outcome of the U.S. election is pivotal for Canada – and Alberta’s economy,” said Bruce Heyman, former U.S. Ambassador to Canada, former partner, Goldman Sachs and recently appointed CEO at Power Sustainable, in a statement. “Policies, tariffs and priorities of either successful administration will significantly alter the trajectory of trade for the country not only in 2025, but the next four years ahead.”
The U.S. is Canada’s biggest trading partner, Economic Development says, and the results of the upcoming election could impact trade policies and tariffs, energy, and tech sector developments for Albertan and Canadian businesses in the coming year.
ATB Financial’s quarterly economic outlook predicts Alberta’s economy is finally recovering post-pandemic, but also found geopolitical uncertainty as a key downside risk.
The report forecasts the province’s real GDP growth at 2.5 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2025, outperforming predictions for the national economy.
“Alberta is poised to be a growth leader in Canada next year,” Mark Parsons, vice-president and chief economist at ATB said in a statement. “But risks remain elevated, and we’re moving from a period of high inflation and labour shortages to an era where geopolitical concerns take center stage.”
The bank says Alberta is relatively more resilient than other provinces across the country due to increased energy market access, continued population growth, and strong emerging industries like tech, hydrogen, and aviation.
“As the economic engine for our province and our country, Calgary continues to invest in its future and generate investor confidence. With Calgary and Alberta poised to lead the nation in GDP growth, demonstrating stability and certainty to the market is critical for our economy,” Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek said in a statement.
More information will be provided to Calgary’s business community on local, national, and international economic trends Tuesday afternoon at the 2025 Economic Outlook, hosted by Calgary Economic Development.
Speakers include Premier Danielle Smith, Gondek, Heyman, and Mark Parsons.
The official program is set to kick off at 3 p.m. at the BMO Centre.