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Last year, when the Trudeau government said it would cap greenhouse-gas emissions (GHG) from the oil and gas sector at 35%-38% below 2019 levels by 2030, it claimed the cap will not affect oil and gas production. But a report by Deloitte, a leading audit and consulting firm, found the cap (which would go into effect in 2026) will, in fact, curtail production, destroy jobs and cost the Canadian economy billions of dollars. Under Trudeau’s cap, Canada must curtail oil production by 626,000 barrels per day by 2030 or by approximately 10% of the expected production — and curtail gas production by approximately 12%.
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According to the report’s estimates, Alberta will be hit hardest, with 3.6% less investment, almost 70,000 fewer jobs, and a 4.5% decrease in the province’s economic output (i.e. GDP) by 2040. Ontario will lose more than 15,000 jobs and $2.3 billion from its economy by 2040. And Quebec will lose more than 3,000 jobs and $0.4 billion from its economy during the same period.
Overall, the whole country will experience an economic loss equivalent to 1% of GDP, translating into lower wages, the loss of nearly 113,000 jobs and a 1.3% reduction in government tax revenues. Canada’s real GDP growth in 2023 was a paltry 1.1%, so a 1% reduction would be a significant economic loss.
Deloitte’s findings echo previous studies on the effects of Ottawa’s cap. According to a recent economic analysis by the Conference Board of Canada, the cap could reduce Canada’s GDP by up to $1 trillion between 2030 and 2040, eliminate up to 151,000 jobs by 2030, reduce federal government revenue by up to $151 billion between 2030 and 2040, and reduce Alberta government revenue by up to $127 billion over the same period. Similarly, another recent study published by the Fraser Institute found an emissions cap on the oil and gas sector would inevitably reduce production and exports, leading to at least $45 billion in lost economic activity in 2030 alone, accompanied by a substantial drop in government revenue.
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Crucially, the huge economic cost to Canadians will come without any discernable environmental benefits. Even if Canada were to entirely shut down its oil and gas sector by 2030, thus eliminating all GHG emissions from the sector, the resulting reduction in global GHG emissions would amount to a mere four-tenths of 1% (i.e. 0.004%) with virtually no impact on the climate or any detectable environmental, health or safety benefits. Given the sustained demand for fossil fuels, constraining oil and gas production and exports in Canada would merely shift production to other regions, potentially to countries with lower environmental and human rights standards such as Iran, Russia and Venezuela.
The Trudeau government’s proposed GHG cap will severely damage Canada’s economy for virtually no environmental benefit. The government should scrap the cap and prioritize the economic well-being of Canadians over policies that only bring pain with no gain.
Julio Mejia and Elmira Aliakbari are analysts at the Fraser Institute.
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