Alberta’s population is ballooning, and so is the unemployment rate, with newcomers and youth being hit especially hard in the job market.
On Thursday, the provincial government said that as Alberta’s population continues to rise, the unemployment rate has climbed significantly, with more people looking for work.
The labour force has grown wildly over the past year, far outstripping job gains and has put upward pressure on the unemployment rate, which averaged 6.7% in the first seven months of the year.
“The rising unemployment rate also appears to be discouraging some segments of the population from looking for work. As such, the labour force participation rate has been lower-than-expected this year, which will keep the unemployment rate contained,” the economic statement added.
The unemployment rate is now forecast to average 7.0% for 2024, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from budget. The unemployment rate is forecast to subside to 6.8% next year as employment growth catches up with the increase in labour force.
The province added that the slack in the labour market has been uneven, with unemployment rising disproportionately among new entrants such as youth and newcomers.
“Newcomers tend to face difficulties integrating into the labour market after they arrive due to a variety of factors such as credential recognition, language barriers and lack of Canadian work experience,” reads the statement.
When it comes to Alberta’s population, it has been rising than what was forecast last February, with the first quarter of 2024 seeing it rise by over 200,000 from a year ago, representing an increase of 4.4%.
That’s the highest annual growth rate since 1981 for that quarter and the fastest among all provinces, and net international migration is on track to surpass last year’s elevated levels, led by record arrivals of non-permanent residents (NPRs) which include temporary foreign workers, international students and refugee claimants, along with their family members.
Alberta’s population is forecasted to grow 4.6% in the 2024 census year, up significantly from the budget forecast of 3.7% and higher than 4.1% seen in 2023.
Government of Alberta
Population growth is expected to moderate to 3.2% in the 2025 census year, still higher than the budget forecast of 2.7%.