Alberta business groups say the federal government’s newly reduced immigration targets may make it harder for employers to find new workers.
Ottawa announced a new strategy for immigration levels on Thursday in order to address rapid population growth and relieve pressures on the housing market. The federal government plans to cut the number of new permanent residents from 485,000 projected for this year to 395,000 in 2025, with further cuts down to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.
It’s a substantial change to Canada’s previous plan for immigration, published November 2023, when the country was expected to admit about 485,000 permanent residents this year and 500,000 in both 2025 and 2026.
It’s a change that has many advocates for Alberta employers concerned.
“There is going to be major labour market implications of these changes,” Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), told CBC News on Friday.
“There’s a bunch of temporary foreign workers in Canada today, working for them, happy in their jobs, but whose visas are about to expire and they’re going to be sent packing. This is such a waste of talent.”
The CFIB represents about 10,000 small businesses in Alberta.
Since Thursday’s announcement, Kelly says the CFIB is hearing from employers who are calling the agency “in tears” because of how this new immigration plan, coupled with the recent changes to Canada’s temporary foreign worker program, will change their day-to-day operations.
“Look, many employers will tell you that their new immigrant worker, their temporary foreign worker, is among their very best workers, because their orientation to come to Canada is to work, to make a better life for themselves,” Kelly said.
He also says the roles temporary foreign workers and permanent immigrants occupy are often positions that have sat vacant for months, which he says suggests that employers are already struggling to find the people they need.
Most of all, he says recruiting newcomers often benefits Canadian workers. Using restaurant staffing as an example, Kelly says those businesses often rely on foreign workers to staff kitchens and other back-of-house positions that would be otherwise difficult to fill, complementing the work of domestic employees who are already staffing the front of house.
When it comes to Alberta’s restaurants, advocates for the business say staffing challenges in the province are facing a rural versus urban divide.
Mark von Schellwitz, vice-president of Western Canada for Restaurants Canada, says a number of the organization’s members are suffering from labour shortages, especially in rural Alberta communities.
“Let’s face it, with the demographic labour shortages that we have that aren’t going to go away any time soon, an increasing number of restaurants have been using immigrants, coming in through various programs, to help supplement their staff,” he said.
“Without them, they wouldn’t be able to run their restaurant.”
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The province’s accommodation and food services sector hit a 7.5 per cent unemployment rate in September 2024, the third highest rate among sectors, according to Alberta’s economic dashboard.
While von Schellwitz believes immigration has put further pressure on resources, he hopes industry partners can work with all levels of government to assure the sector becomes an attractive choice for long-term employment for existing Canadians and newcomers alike.
Workers not being paid enough, says advocate
However, one workers’ advocate says this new move from the federal government could benefit domestic employees.
Gil McGowan, president of the Alberta Federation of Labour (AFL) — which represents trade unions and workers across Alberta — says the federal government originally overshot in its immigration targets, which he says had a tangible impact on Albertans’ cost of living.
“This particular iteration of the Trudeau government … has actually been quite good for working people, including working Albertans,” he said.
“But there was one big area where we had concerns and reservations, and that was immigration. Specifically, we felt very strongly that they had misstepped by allowing too many people into the country too quickly, especially as non-permanent residents.”
Overall, Ottawa’s decision to reassess the immigration plan and put forth new measures is something he supports.
McGowan believes the root of the labour shortages identified by groups like the CFIB and Restaurants Canada stems from the idea that such jobs aren’t paying enough to be attractive to domestic workers.
Canada’s population to decrease
More than 200,000 people moved to Alberta in 2023, a record increase in population growth for the province, marking a 4.1 per cent annual spurt. For that same year, Canada’s population ballooned by 3.2 per cent, the highest jump in one year since 1957.
Ottawa’s new immigration plan indicates Canada’s population will decrease by 0.2 per cent over the next two years, a notable shift from last year’s 3.2 per cent increase — the highest annual surge since 1957, according to Statistics Canada.
Some say the large swings in population pose challenges for industry’s ability to plan for major projects.
Warren Singh, executive director of the Alberta Construction Association (ACA), says the province’s construction sector would benefit from a balanced approach to immigration levels.
“Looking at where the federal government wants to go over the next few years, we understand where they’re coming from. But at the same time, I think we still have a current skilled labour gap in the province of Alberta,” said Singh, adding that a shortage of skilled workers is posing a challenge for the trades.
Singh says the ACA’s members are hoping for both levels of government to look at how to attract skilled labour to the province, as the construction industry requires the ability to forecast its capacity to meet both the current and future project demand.
Thursday’s announcement is also something he believes could impact existing construction sector workers.
“There’s this narrative of doing more with less. They’re going to have to take on more,” he said, noting there are always projects that require skilled labour, but the workforce is part of mapping out how to achieve those targets.